###MODELO DE CARLIN MODIFICADO COM BETA FIXO (MODELO 1) ###função de verossimilhança model{ for (i in 1:n){ d[i]~dpois(lambda[i]) lambda[i]<-theta[i]*e[i] } ###Estabelecimento da priori de theta, para i=1,...,N theta[1]~dgamma(0.01,0.01)I(0,theta[2]) for (i in 2:(n-1)){ theta[i]~dgamma(0.01,0.01)I(theta[i-1],theta[i+1]) } theta[n]~dgamma(0.01,0.01)I(theta[n-1],1) ###Estabelecimento da distribuição preditiva do numero de mortos for (i in 1:n){ drep[i]~dpois(lambda[i]) theta.est[i]<-drep[i]/e[i] q.est[i]<-1-exp(-theta.est[i]) } }